# @scotpilie_wx on TikTok

- **Type:** Video
- **Original URL:** https://www.tiktok.com/@scotpilie_wx/video/7527036062879845645
- **Gondola URL:** https://gondola.cc/posts/32509282-scotpilie-wx-tiktok
- **Thumbnail:** https://img.gondola.cc/tr:w-,h-,fo-auto/postThumbnails/cb053b4997.jpg
- **Posted:** 2025-07-14T20:24:50.000+00:00

## Caption

How much rain is going to fall from this Gulf system? Checks notes. There's a WIDE array of potential outcomes with this one. However, one thing I don't enjoy seeing from guidance today is the "barney blob" or "barney bullseye" with the potential of localized 6-10+" from some of our trusted forecast models. (Many models currently highlighting Louisiana as the hot spot to watch for heavy rain threat mid-late week into this upcoming weekend.) What you're looking at below is called the 'Ensemble Models' from the latest European Model. I like to say that ensembles are a fancy way of shuffling your hand when playing a card game.  Each ensemble model run showcases slightly different environmental conditions that can lead to different scenarios playing out. Thus, each scenario places the bullseye of heaviest rain in a different location. The takeaway? Whether #Dexter forms or not, heavy rain, flash flood risk & increased tides Wednesday-Saturday along the north Gulf Coast. Exact rainfall totals will be adjusted and fine-tuned as the confidence in the forecast grows. Stay tuned. #Dexter #TropicalStorm #TropicalStormDexter #HurricaneSeason #Hurricane #Weather #WeatherTok #gulfofmexico #gulfofamerica #beachforecast #weatherreport #meteorologist 

## Stats

- **Views:** 17,600
- **Likes:** 540
- **Shares:** 56
- **Comments:** 14

## Tags

weathertok, hurricane, hurricaneseason, beachforecast, weather, dexter, tropicalstormdexter, tropicalstorm, meteorologist, weatherreport, gulfofmexico, gulfofamerica

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