# @tastyliveshow on YouTube - **Type:** Video - **Original URL:** https://youtube.com/watch?v=l_O5lWwsS5g - **Gondola URL:** https://gondola.cc/posts/64976716-tastyliveshow-youtube - **Thumbnail:** https://img.gondola.cc/tr:w-,h-,fo-auto/postThumbnails/53922365a4.jpg - **Posted:** 2026-05-02T16:00:06.000+00:00 - **Account Owner:** tastylive (@tastyliveshow) — https://gondola.cc/tastyliveshow ## Caption Investing right now means choosing between Paul Tudor Jones calling for a 30 to 35% market correction and Tom Lee targeting new highs. Volatility trading gives you a framework that cuts through both narratives and right now the vol futures are not agreeing with Jones. The full vol curve is in contango across every cycle, the VIX is sub-17, and equities are at all-time highs while oil sits elevated and geopolitical risk hasn't gone anywhere. This episode of Options Math Check breaks down the SPX probability data for both a 30% rally and a 30% selloff, shows why backwardation is the real warning signal to watch, and explains exactly what would need to happen for Jones to be right. Helpful links: tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ FREE tasytlive Newsletters: https://info.tastylive.com/newsletters FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 Follow tastylive on X (Twitter): https://x.com/tastyliveshow CHAPTERS: 00:00 Paul Tudor Jones Calls for a 30-35% Market Crash 00:55 Tom Lee Still Targeting New Highs - Who's Right? 01:26 Why Markets Move Before the Headlines Make Sense 02:55 Apple, Microsoft, Everything Ripping Higher 03:43 Reading the Vol Futures Curve: Full Contango Right Now 04:29 What Backwardation Looks Like - COVID, Tariffs, and the War 05:11 What Would Need to Happen for a 30% Correction 05:47 SPX June Probabilities: 7,700 Upside vs. Sub-6,000 Downside 08:21 Put Skew Still Elevated - Velocity of Risk Is to the Downside 09:28 December Cycle: Longer-Dated Options Tell the Same Story 11:08 Final Read: Vol Contango + Sub-17 VIX = Drift Higher #optionsmathcheck #volatilitytrading #stockmarket #investing #vix #stockmarketcrash #paultudrjones #optionstrading #impliedvolatility #tastylive tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we’ll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. ## Stats - **Views:** 8,878 - **Likes:** 254 - **Shares:** 0 - **Comments:** 52 ## Tags investing, volatilitytrading, tastylive, optionstrading, impliedvolatility, vix, stockmarketcrash, stockmarket, paultudrjones, optionsmathcheck --- Copyright (c) Gondola