# @tastyliveshow on YouTube

- **Type:** Video
- **Original URL:** https://youtube.com/watch?v=wcEb37SmsmE
- **Gondola URL:** https://gondola.cc/posts/67717998-tastyliveshow-youtube
- **Thumbnail:** https://img.gondola.cc/tr:w-,h-,fo-auto/postThumbnails/9bc7a985ce.jpg
- **Posted:** 2026-07-10T03:00:38.000+00:00
- **Account Owner:** tastylive (@tastyliveshow) — https://gondola.cc/tastyliveshow

## Caption

Stock market and macro analysis: the Iran war resumed, US and Iranian strikes are back on, and crude oil jumped more than 10% from trough to peak over two sessions, the biggest move since oil topped in mid-May. Chris Vecchio and Ilya Spivak say oil was already carving out a bottom before the news, and nobody wants to send an empty tanker into Hormuz during a shaky 60-day window. The knock-on effect hits the treasury market: with a hawkish Fed under Warsh banging the table on price stability and a rate hike now looking baked in, they debate whether the long end could actually rally as the curve twists.

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Chapters
00:00 Has the Trump administration lost control of oil?
00:32 Oil jumps 10%, the biggest move since the mid-May top
00:58 Oil was already carving out a bottom before the news
01:37 Has the reaction function changed? The Hormuz question
02:50 Trading it: short put spreads in CL and MCL
03:59 Ilya's long call verticals in USO, the 45-day approach
05:00 The key levels: 79 and 84 as sticking points
06:25 When to go directionally neutral on oil
07:38 The knock-on effect: treasuries breaking down
08:35 A very hawkish Fed and Warsh on price stability
09:32 Why yields never went back to pre-war levels
10:22 If they hike now, the long end might rally later

#tastylive #oil #ironwar #fed #interestrates #macro #tradingtrends #crudeoil #treasuries #tastytrade
tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran.

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request.

tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.

## Stats

- **Views:** 652
- **Likes:** 12
- **Shares:** 0
- **Comments:** 2

## Tags

macro, ironwar, interestrates, tradingtrends, oil, fed, crudeoil, tastytrade, treasuries, tastylive

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