Two weeks ago, the world learned that Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Georgia who supports a total abortion ban without exceptions, had paid for his pregnant then-girlfriend to get an abortion in 2009. We now have new polling data that suggests that the story may have cost Walker some support. Four surveys showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading, on average, 48% to 45% among likely voters. Previously, in those same pollsters’ most recent surveys taken before the news broke, the two candidates were essentially tied at 47% each. That’s not a ton of movement; it’s also narrow enough to be within the surveys’ margins of error. But the consistency among pollsters gives us more confidence that it represents a true shift. And as a result, our forecast for Georgia’s U.S. Senate race has moved in the Democrats’ favor. Warnock now has a 59-in-100 chance of winning reelection, up slightly from 54-in-100 on Oct. 4.
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