The trade conflict, especially between the U.S. and China, is causing major economic disruptions. If tariffs between the two countries stay where they are, we expect a supply-driven contraction in activity this year. Yet if economic rules keep spurring policy changes, the drag could be lower.
Nicholas Fawcett, Senior Economist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, explains why we don’t see any downturn as a typical broad-based cyclical recession and look through Covid-like disruptions. We favor the artificial intelligence mega force and stay overweight U.S. stocks.
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