Let me get out ahead of this… Are models signaling a wake up of the Atlantic hurricane season late next week? Yes. Is this any imminent concern over the next 10 days? NO!❌🌀 1. Is it a guarantee anything forms at all ? No. We have seen model guidance spit out a dozen “ghost storms” already this season, storms that never came to fruition. It’s possible models are too overzealous again. However, environmental conditions do look much more favorable/conducive by late next week(8/14-8/16), which is why im giving model forecasts a bit more credence about the potential. 2. Steering is everything. In a scenario where a storm does form late next week, will it be steered towards land or harmlessly out to sea into the Atlantic? We will not know that answer for many, many days. Model guidance is in “La La Land,” where they are basically grasping at straws & throwing darts at possible solutions from out to sea to the Gulf in ~12-15 days. Accuracy at this stage is extremely low, so do not take mode...
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