The tropical wave in the East-Central Atlantic has a HIGH, 70% chance of development in the next 7 days. Next name is #Gabrielle. Something to keep an eye in the Caribbean Islands by mid next week by 09/09-09/10. Few things to keep in mind: 1. Organization initially looks slow to occur and it may take quite some time for this feature to coalesce. 2. Model guidance will struggle to handle the long term track and intensity of this system until it actually forms. 3. Long-range steering isn’t sold on an “out-to-sea” route. While the predominant steering favors an out to sea path, it’s not guaranteed. European ensembles show potential path near/north of the islands by 9/10, potentially as a disorganized wave or an intensifying hurricane. Wide range of uncertainty at this stage. No threat for the next 10 days for the U.S. Gulf or East Coast. Stay tuned. We are now entering the most busy time of the hurricane season. September and October remain high impact months for landfalling storms. ...