GULF DISTURBANCE DEEPER DIVE📌🌀 7/16 Video Update Boom…or total bust? I’m liking the trends with latest model guidance. Here’s what I mean: 1. The trend overnight suggests LESS organization of #Invest93L as it swings towards Louisiana Wednesday-Saturday. National Hurricane Center maintains a medium, 40% chance of this disturbance becoming a depression or weak tropical storm. Most models struggle to develop this at all. 2. Model guidance across the board has trended DOWN with the rainfall projections across Louisiana and the northern Gulf Coast from this system. Widespread 2-3” of rain still expected, which is definitely manageable, especially if it comes in waves. 3. Models have trended SOUTH with placement of heaviest rain along the coast. That would be ideal as it would keep heaviest rain over marshier areas of the state. 4. Now, the caveat — even though model guidance has trended in the right direction, and this could be a flop for some…We still have a sizeable surge of tropical...