The Federal Reserve is widely expected to approve another 25 basis point rate cut this week — bringing the benchmark federal funds rate down to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. Markets are assigning nearly a 100% probability of the move, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
But while the decision itself may be expected, the real challenge lies in what comes next.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces growing disagreement within the FOMC. Some members, like Stephen Miran, are pushing for faster cuts, while others — including Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan — prefer to pause and assess more data.
With inflation holding steady at 3% and concerns mounting over a cooling labor market, economists expect the Fed could continue cutting through early 2026, potentially reaching a “neutral” rate near 3%.
Another key topic is quantitative tightening (QT) — the Fed’s effort to reduce its $6.6 trillion balance sheet. Powell may hint that QT is nearing its end as liquidity tightens in short-term funding markets.
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