As an investor, time is on your side. A longer time horizon gives investors more ability to weather short term volatility, while giving them more time for potential returns to compound.
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To assess the probability of loss over different investment durations (N years), we employed a rolling return methodology. This involved calculating the total returns for consecutive N-year periods starting from 1926 to 2023. For instance, for 2-year returns, we analyzed periods such as July 1926-June 1928, followed by August 1926-July 1928, and so on up to October 2021-September 2023. The probability of loss was then determined by the proportion of these periods that yielded negative total returns. This analysis does not factor in potential tax implications or investment fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should consider their individual circumstances before making investment decisions...