Elon Musk has repeatedly touted the Optimus humanoid robot as Tesla’s (NYSE: TSLA ) most significant long-term value driver, suggesting it could eventually propel the company’s market cap to $25 trillion. Yet, prediction market odds suggest a humanoid robot in 2026 may be a little too optimistic. During Tesla's recent “We, Robot” event, Musk claimed the robots could perform everything from babysitting to mowing lawns, with a price tag between $20,000 and $30,000. But according to Kalshi, the humanoid robot has just a 21% chance of being available for sale in 2026. For Tesla investors, the skepticism in the prediction markets suggests that the actual revenue contribution from robotics may be further off than the company’s marketing suggests. If Tesla fails to meet its internal production milestones in 2025, expect the Kalshi odds to tumble further. With Tesla’s car based revenue falling, this could have a similar impact on Tesla’s stock price. The success or failure of Optimus isn’t jus...