The Federal Reserve is set to deliver its latest rate decision today, but markets are watching much more than just interest rates. The Fed meeting comes as the Iran conflict enters day 19, with oil prices near $95 per barrel and the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, disrupting a key global energy route that typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil supply. This backdrop is raising fresh concerns about inflation, just as policymakers decide their next move. Prediction markets are already shifting expectations. On Polymarket: • The probability of zero rate cuts in 2026 is rising • A single rate cut remains the most likely outcome, but confidence is weakening • Only about 26% odds that the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of April At the same time, inflation expectations remain elevated, with markets pricing a high probability of CPI staying above key levels. The Fed now faces a complex balancing act between slowing growth and rising inflation risks driven by geopolitical ten...