Retail euphoria is back — and that’s making me uneasy. The bullish sentiment is flooding back in — I see it in my DMs, I see it in the comments. But when things get this loud, I start paying even closer attention to the signals under the surface. The market just closed, and today’s price action speaks volumes. The CNH/CNY spread widened nearly 5% to 1.89 — that’s not noise, that’s stress. When offshore yuan (CNH) sharply diverges from onshore (CNY), it often signals capital flight, speculative buildup, or weakening monetary control. Moves like this don’t just “happen.” They often precede intervention — whether it’s the selling of FX reserves (USTs, gold, commodities), or more direct capital controls or liquidity injections. Gold rallied 1.57%, while 10Y yields fell nearly 8 bps. That’s a safety bid, a disinflation trade — maybe both. If China’s feeling pressure, they may be forced to tap reserves, which could later impact USTs or gold. For now, gold is acting like a hedge against sy...