Two demographic lines in Iowa may soon intersect, meaning the state could start experiencing declines in population, according to Ben Murray of the Common Sense Institute of Iowa.
The institute's recently published study of Iowa’s demographic trends using 2025 U.S. Census data found Iowa’s birth rates are decreasing and death rates are increasing. In addition, the migration of new residents into the state, both domestic and international, is falling.
If births, deaths, and migration and immigration are the three legs of a stool representing population, negative net births will tip the balance away from slow growth to decline. Even the rapid growth of metro Iowa City and the Des Moines metro ― the fastest among major metros in the Midwest ― can't make up the difference.
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