Options trading with a strangle works because price movement is largely random, and swing trading a neutral position means understanding exactly how likely price is to stay within your range.
The data from this SPY study puts a real number on it: 68%.Managing at 21 days doubles the probability of a stock returning to its initial price compared to holding to expiration. This episode of Options Jive breaks down three stock types uptrending like Nvidia, downtrending like Rivian, and range-bound like XLRE -- and shows exactly what the probability of price retracement looks like across a 45-day cycle. The numbers are worth knowing before you put on your next position.
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CHAPTERS:
01:56 Study Intro: Can You Trade a Stock's Price Retracement?
02:27 Three ...