Investing through a strong jobs report that nobody panicked about requires understanding why the market has changed since 2022 and 2023. Economy data like April non-farm payrolls would have sent stocks sharply lower two years ago, triggered higher for longer discussions, and pushed yields above 5% on the two year. None of that happened.
Chris Vecchio and Ilya Spivak break down the three competing theories: the Fed credibility shift, the AI capex buildout making the economy rate-insensitive, and whether inflation expectations priced into bonds are already doing the tightening. Plus the prime-age workforce participation rate at 83.8%, a level only seen in the late 1990s boom. CPI this week will tell the next chapter.
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CHAPTERS:
00:00 Strong Jobs Data...