I’ve found that most wars are filled with surprises, but the stakes of this conflict are obvious: it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz. We’ve seen this pattern before—with the Dutch in the 17th century and the British in 1956. When a world power reveals military and financial weakness, the world order shifts. In my latest article, I look at the mechanics of the current Middle East crisis. You can find it at the link in my bio.