The Anti-Corruption Data Collective examined Polymarket bets on military outcomes, looking specifically at long-shot wagers — bets of more than $2,500 with less than 35% odds of winning. Despite the bets being underdogs, they won more than they lost, a telltale sign, researchers say, of “systemic insider-trading.” “Military bets are 52% success rate. Sports, 7%,” says Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, researcher at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. #predictionmarket #polymarket #betting #insidertrading