Odds provided by Kalshi show Trump-backed Ed Gallrein with a 61% chance of winning Kentucky’s Republican primary, compared to 40% for longtime Congressman Thomas Massie. The race has become one of the most closely watched Republican battles of the 2026 midterms after President Donald Trump publicly targeted Massie, one of his most vocal GOP critics in Congress. Trump has repeatedly endorsed Gallrein in recent days, while outside groups and political allies have poured millions into the contest - turning it into one of the most expensive House primaries in U.S. history. Massie, who has represented Kentucky’s 4th District for 14 years, has clashed with Trump over foreign aid, overseas conflicts and the release of Jeffrey Epstein-related government files. The outcome is now being viewed as another major test of Trump’s grip on the Republican Party ahead of the midterms. 🇺🇸 #Kentucky #ThomasMassie #EdGallrein #RepublicanPrimary