Microsoft stock is down 13.5% year to date. The companies it backs are growing at a pace that has almost no historical comparison.
Anthropic went from $87 million in annualized revenue in January 2024 to $30 billion by early 2026. Salesforce took nearly 20 years to reach those same numbers. Anthropic did it in under three years. Microsoft invested $5 billion six months ago into a company now valued at $380 billion with private sellers suggesting it could fetch $1.15 trillion at IPO. Meanwhile their OpenAI stake, purchased for $13 billion, is now estimated at $135 billion with $250 billion in committed Azure consumption attached to it. Bill Ackman sees the same thing and is in the stock for the same reasons. The market still thinks Microsoft is a software company. The tape may be about to change its mind.
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