In the final seconds of Friday trading, nearly $70 million in options premium hit the tape in two completely opposite directions. Someone dropped $53 million into Nvidia calls. Someone else put $17 million into SanDisk puts. Then Monday morning, Jensen Huang unveiled a major new chip at Computex and Nvidia jumped 4% while competitors collapsed.
The Nvidia trade looks like informed conviction. The SanDisk trade looks like a crash bet, with puts placed 44% below the current price with only four days to expiration and implied volatility near 200%. But the final minutes of Friday trading are also when institutions rebalance, hedge funds adjust, and indexes reset. Maybe neither trade means anything at all.
That is exactly the question. Was this signal or was this noise?
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