Ray Dalio's bubble indicator is at 80% of the euphoria seen before the 1929 crash and the dot-com bubble. It has not backed off that warning in six months. But Dalio also says the catalyst that pops a bubble has not arrived yet: no liquidity crunch, no debt pressure, no forced selling. So what does the options market actually say about a 20% further move? SPX is at 7,500. Getting to 9,000 by year-end sits at 7% probability ITM and 14% probability of touch. By the end of 2027 those numbers jump to 25% ITM and 50% touch. And 8,000 is already within the expected move for this December. Helpful links: tastylive: tastylive.com Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: tastylive.com/newsletters FREE Options Strategy Guide: tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 Follow tastylive on X: x.com/tastyliveshow CHAPTERS: 0:00 Dalio's Bubble Warning 0:35 The Final 20% Thesis 1:27 SPX Chart and Bollinger Bands 2:40 VIX and Vol Futures Contango 3:57 Crude Oil Backwardation Collapse 4:...