The expected move is one of the most used metrics in options trading. But most traders treat it as a fixed number. It is not.
Jim Schultz breaks down how the expected move scales with time, why it widens dramatically as you move from 7 days to 49 days to 84 days, and why that non-linear scaling matters when choosing strikes and managing risk. Live Dell and Tesla option chains show the difference in real numbers, and Jim explains why 45 days to expiration is the sweet spot where decay efficiency and expected move width actually balance out.
One standard deviation. A 67-68% probability range. A lot to unpack here.
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CHAPTERS:
0:00 What Is the Expected Move
0:56 How It Scales With Time
2:18 Dell: 7 vs 49 Day Cycles
4:17 Tesla Expected Move Examples
6:46 Sta...