Traders dropped $26 million in downside premium on Intel and AMD last week. The biggest single ticket was a $14.6 million Intel put, July 17 at the $130 strike, 18 days out. That hit the tape right after Nancy Pelosi disclosed over $5 million in Intel calls. The most famous political trader in the country is long. An anonymous book just bet $15 million against her. Classic signal vs noise.
Chris Vecchio walks the whole setup: Intel up 580% from its $19 low, Nvidia already in correction territory, Broadcom's guidance sparking the rotation, and why the Christmas in July seasonality pattern (78% hit rate over 40 years) makes short-dated puts a tough timing bet right now. Governments are treating AI compute like national defense. Reflexivity says high prices invite supply. The tape says ride momentum until it stops.
š tastylive:
tastylive.com
š° Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning:
tastylive.com/newsletters
š FREE Options Strategy Guide:
tinyurl...