Most traders assume buying the dip is a contrarian edge. Julia Spina with tastylive research tested it systematically and the results are surprising. Trading small down days of less than one percent actually underperforms just trading on any given day. The edge only shows up when the market is down one to two percent or more. And the sweet spot that balances frequency and richness is that one to two percent range.
The reason matters as much as the result. The outperformance on bigger down days does not come from the directional assumption being more correct. The probability of a bounce 45 days after a two percent drop is no better than any other 45-day period. The edge comes entirely from higher premiums and elevated volatility. The dip buys itself. The volatility pays for the trade.
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