Multifamily has long been marketed as the “safe” core of real estate investing. But that assumption is starting to break when you look at how demand is actually formed. Most investors underwrite multifamily as if it is driven only by housing shortage. In reality, it is much closer to a cycle asset tied to income, credit availability, and employment stability. Rent growth follows wage growth. Not supply constraints. When wages slow, rent expansion slows with it. At the same time, supply in many markets has already caught up faster than expected. That shifts pricing power away from owners and toward tenants. Occupancy also looks stable on the surface. But small demand shifts can quickly translate into meaningful NOI compression when concessions start to rise. Layer in interest rate exposure, and refinancing risk becomes a real driver of value—not just a financing detail. And underneath all of it, automation and AI are beginning to reshape the very job base that supports long-term ...