Stock market and macro analysis: the Iran war resumed, US and Iranian strikes are back on, and crude oil jumped more than 10% from trough to peak over two sessions, the biggest move since oil topped in mid-May. Chris Vecchio and Ilya Spivak say oil was already carving out a bottom before the news, and nobody wants to send an empty tanker into Hormuz during a shaky 60-day window. The knock-on effect hits the treasury market: with a hawkish Fed under Warsh banging the table on price stability and a rate hike now looking baked in, they debate whether the long end could actually rally as the curve twists. 📊 tastylive: tastylive.com 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Has the Trump administration lost control of oil? 00:32 Oil jumps 10%, the biggest move since the mid-May top 00:58 Oil was already ...