Mike Butler runs the earnings math on three high volatility names, Bloom Energy, Seagate and Enphase, and the headline is how rarely the big implied move shows up. Over the last eight cycles Bloom beat its move once, Enphase twice and Seagate zero times, so the market keeps pricing swings history says usually do not happen.
He walks the numbers: all three carry weekly implied moves above 10 percent of the stock, and Bloom is the wildest near 300 percent implied volatility, where a two standard deviation move would be about half the stock price. He also explains why volatility over 100 percent tends to show call skew, and why he stays defined risk into earnings. This is education, not a recommendation.
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Chapters
00:00 Three high-vol earnings names...