Right after a weak July jobs report, with Treasury yields, the dollar and Fed pricing all at a crossroads, Chris Vecchio sits down with Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist to make sense of it. The center of the conversation is new Fed Chair Warsh, who came out of his first meeting sounding notably hawkish, hammering the point that the Fed hasn't hit its 2% inflation target in years, only to leave rates unchanged and throw the market for a loop.
Muir's framing is the hook: was the hawkish talk a deliberate strategy, talk tough, never actually hike, or a new chair still learning the steps? They dig into why the bond market bid the long end, why a chair is only one vote of twelve, the supposed death of forward guidance, and how a low-hiring, low-firing labor market complicates the Fed's next move. These are Muir's own views and this is not a recommendation or investment advice.
š tastylive:
tastylive.com
š° Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning:
tastylive.com...