Everyone braces for the big overnight gap, and this Cboe backed study says it barely happens. Across roughly 2,400 SPY sessions, nine in ten overnight moves landed inside a one percent band, and the direction of the gap said almost nothing about how the day closed. What it did predict was whether it would fill, and small gaps filled far more often than large ones. Elevated volatility changed that by widening the intraday range. A fill signal, not a forecast. Study results are historical, not predictive. 📊 tastylive: tastylive.com 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 What the study looks at 00:32 How the study was built 01:28 The distribution of overnight moves 02:33 How rare the big gaps are 03:47 Does the gap predict direction 05:06 Why day by day is hard 06:17 Longer horizons behave differen...