If you sell premium and manage at fifty percent, this Cboe backed study has a number for you. Across ten years of SPY strangles, that target was hit on more than eighty percent of trades, but only after holding for roughly sixty percent of the contract's life.
Elevated volatility did not change the odds of getting there, only the speed. The longest dated contracts gained the most, reaching the target nearly twenty percent faster when the VIX was above thirty, though those conditions were rare. Study results are historical, not predictive.
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Chapters
00:00 What this study is about
00:31 Why volatility matters to sellers
01:16 How the study was built
02:17 Past the halfway point
03:12 Average days held by duration
04:24 Why shorter trades use smalle...