The market has run hard off the March low, and this study puts it in historical context. The research looks at every case since 2004 where the market gained at least twenty percent in under six months without a drawdown deeper than six percent, and finds eleven.
From there it turns to reversals, measuring how often a two standard deviation move gets filled the next day compared with over five and forty five days. The pattern is the case for giving contrarian positions time rather than expecting a snapback. Study results are historical, not predictive. Education, not a recommendation.
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Chapters
00:00 What the piece is about
01:08 The criteria for the study
01:42 Eleven times since 2004
03:30 How this rally compares
04:47 Odds of a pullback ahead
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