Two days after the biggest session of its life, Moderna is already giving some back, and roughly $6.8 million in put premium has hit the tape across Moderna and Merck. This digs into what the release actually contained, including no hazard ratio and no survival curve.
The signal is the calendar. The Moderna puts expire weeks before the full data is presented at ESMO in late October, making them a fade of the move rather than a verdict on the science. The Merck put reaches past that release and past its third quarter call. Education, not a recommendation.
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Chapters
00:00 Betting against the biggest move
00:56 What the two stocks did
01:26 What the release left out
02:06 The first bets on Moderna
02:53 Where those levels sit now
03:26 The calendar ...