Tesla cyber cabs are starting to show up on city streets, and the obvious read is
that autonomous ride hailing is an existential problem for Uber. The argument here
runs the other way.
The reasoning is in the unit economics. On a ride today, most of the fare leaves
the business to the driver. Strip the driver out and the cost side drops
substantially, which means fares can come down and Uber can still keep a similar
or better share of a smaller number. Cheaper rides also mean more rides. The
condition is that Uber has to lean in and make autonomous vehicles a real part of
the fleet rather than fight them.
The catch is timing. Rollouts look like a 2027 to 2029 story at the earliest, and
there are no listed options that far out. So the structure has to survive a long
wait without bleeding capital.
That's the trade: a poor man's covered call, also called a call diagonal. Buying
100 shares outright runs about $7,500, or roughly $3,700 on margin. This deep in
the money long call runs abo...
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