Cem Karsan calls this the flow dynamic most people never grasp. Structured product selling compresses volatility at the index level, which pins the index. But idiosyncratic risk does not disappear, so if one large name rips higher, arbitrage forces others down. A quiet index and violent stocks are the same story.
He also lays out the refinancing argument, why skew rather than volatility is the primary driver of dealer flows, and why thinking about markets as simply up or down misses the point when options let you bet in time as well as price.
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Chapters
0:00 The refinancing wave is starting
0:53 Two and a half to seven
1:36 Why the thesis needs yields
2:18 Use options, not just shorts
2:59 What the response would be
3:43 Skew matters more than vol...