Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, August 28, and markets read it as decisively hawkish. Warsh said PCE inflation is running at 3.7% year-over-year and 4.1% annualized over the past six months, described the labor market as consistent with full employment at 4.1% unemployment, and said he would be "hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive." He set the bar plainly: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do." Within minutes, Polymarket odds of a 2026 rate hike jumped to as high as 69% from the mid-50s Thursday. CME futures put September hike probability at 59%, up from 35% the day before. The two-year Treasury yield rose as much as 9 basis points to 4.32%, the U.S. dollar gained 0.4%, and gold sold off more than 2%. Priya Misra of JPMorgan Asset Management called the remarks a "hawkish speech" and a "clean-up act"...