Is a selloff actually a better time to sell premium? Julia Spina tests it the mechanical way, opening 16 delta strangles at 45 days and managing at 21, across the full 2013 to 2026 history and then just the post COVID regime, grouped by whether the entry day was down 1, 2 or 3 percent. The headline finding is a reversal: selling deeper into a drop looks worse over the full sample but better since COVID.
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Chapters
00:00 Today's research question
00:52 How the study is built
01:53 The average P&L reversal
03:30 Why COVID skewed everything
04:24 The buy the dip generation
06:57 Win rates barely move
08:03 Premium per unit of buying power
09:10 Where the tail risk lives
11:08 The takeaways
12:11 A big move follows a big move
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