Lower oil, lower rates, higher stocks. One sentence, three separate bets, and Mike Butler prices each on its own. Rates are already off the table after the 25 basis point hike, with another priced in later this year. Oil is roughly a coin flip and so is the market. Every one of those calls is reasonable in isolation. The trouble is asking for all three at once.
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Chapters
00:00 One sentence, three bets
00:28 Pricing oil, rates and stocks
00:47 Why the bundle is a long shot
01:02 The bundling did it, not the takes
01:17 The ETFs built to fade and follow
01:56 Into the platform on a red day
02:50 A volatility crush in crude
03:08 Reading the crude probabilities
03:52 Higher for longer on the curve
04:32 Year end SPX both directions
05:41 How lopsided...