Tom Lee says the fourth quarter starts one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime, and he puts 8,200 on the S&P by year end. From the September 16 close that is a move of roughly 8.6 percent in three and a half months. The seasonal pattern behind it is real: since 1950 the index has been higher one year after every midterm, 19 times out of 19, with the last miss in 1939.
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Chapters
00:00 The call and the number
00:25 Why the pattern is real
00:43 What 2022 looked like
01:05 This year has no drawdown
01:34 Taking it to the platform
02:22 The year end expiration
03:05 Where 8,200 actually sits
03:56 Calls gained, puts lost more
04:42 Why volatility matters here
05:12 Finishing there versus touching
05:41 What it means either way
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