The Fed hiked 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent, unanimous, with 16 of 18 policymakers wanting at least one more this year. The dots stop at 4.25 and hold through 2027, well short of the four hikes markets had priced. The real shift is what the chair now counts as inflation. Not just oil and tariffs, but the AI buildout itself: GPUs, power, cooling, construction labor. Areas with heavier data center buildout already show faster construction wage growth. Productivity comes later. The spending is inflationary now. Crude eased toward 104 as Saudi barrels route around the Red Sea, but diesel settled at a record. Crude moves easily. Refineries do not.
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