Does a Fed rate hike mean the stock market is about to crash? History suggests a dip may be more likely than a disaster. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. That was its first hike since 2023, and officials signaled one more increase may come this year. Hot inflation data pushed traders to bet heavily on the move in the days before the meeting. Goldman Sachs Research, led by chief U.S. equity strategist Ben Snider, studied seven Fed hiking cycles since 1988. On average, the S&P 500 fell about 2% in the first three months after hikes began. Over the following 12 months, the index gained about 9% on average, and 2022 was the only cycle that broke that pattern. Why it matters for investors: higher rates can pressure stock valuations, especially growth and rate-sensitive sectors, and long-term Treasury yields could shape how quickly stocks recover. Past cycles do not guarantee future returns, but the data...