This wasn't the Fed's last move, it was the first. On Wednesday, September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% the first hike since 2023 and the Federal Open Market Committee approved it unanimously, 12 to 0. The bigger signal was in the projections, not the decision. Sixteen of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts penciled in at least one more rate increase before the end of this year. The median 2026 federal funds rate projection landed at 4.1%, above the current midpoint, with a central tendency of 4.1% to 4.4%. That is the Fed saying in its own numbers that the direction has flipped. In its post-meeting statement the committee said inflation remains elevated and that the action would support a timelier return to its 2% goal, pointing to price pressures driven in part by spiraling oil prices. After three officials favored a hike back at the July meeting, the whole voting committee came along in ...