The Federal Reserve announces its September rate decision today at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. A quarter-point rate hike is largely priced in, with Polymarket traders assigning an 89 percent probability to a 25-basis-point increase and just 11 percent to no change, on roughly $193 million in trading volume. But according to JPMorgan, the hike itself is not what will drive stocks. The bank told clients the S&P 500 could swing anywhere from 1 percent higher to 2 percent lower depending entirely on how Warsh frames the decision. JPMorgan mapped five scenarios. A surprise hold could send the S&P down 1.25 to 1.75 percent, as investors question the Fed's willingness to contain inflation and long-term Treasury yields push higher. A 25-basis-point hike with little forward guidance could lift the index 0.25 to 0.75 percent. The most bullish setup is a hike accompanied by a signal that the Fed is simply unwinding the 75 basis points of easing del...