For most of the past year, investors were waiting on one thing from the Federal Reserve: rate cuts. Then, over just a few weeks, that hope vanished, and the market flipped from expecting cuts to bracing for a possible rate HIKE. As one Realtor.com economist put it, the question is no longer if the Fed hikes, but when. This short is a clip from the full breakdown on my channel: "It's Not IF the Fed Hikes, But WHEN." The twist almost everyone is getting wrong: it did not happen because inflation came roaring back. The key is a distinction most people never hear explained. The Consumer Price Index, the CPI, is the inflation number you hear about most, but the Federal Reserve actually targets a different gauge called Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, at 2 percent. CPI cooled off from its highs earlier this year. But the Fed's preferred PCE measure did something more troubling. It fell a long way from its 2022 peak near 7 percent, and then progress just stopped. It has been stuck a...