In this clip from The Drift, tastytrade founder Tom Sosnoff makes a provocative argument to Adam Mesh: the Federal Reserve has become largely irrelevant when it comes to actually moving markets.
Sosnoff's reasoning is simple math. The U.S. Treasury bond market is roughly $30 trillion. The Fed, by contrast, moves around five to ten billion dollars at a time through its open market operations. That's a fraction of a fraction of the total market. In Sosnoff's view, that scale mismatch makes Fed rate decisions function more like a PR statement than a genuine market mechanism the bond market has already priced in what's going to happen long before the Fed makes its move.
His conclusion: don't expect the Fed to trump the bond market. The bond market is too big, too fast, and too forward-looking. The Fed follows. It doesn't lead.
Watch the full episode of The Drift on Benzinga's YouTube channel.
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