Have bonds bottomed, or is this just a dead cat bounce? On Five Minute Futures, sponsored by CME Group, the trade is a tactical shot at a swing higher in the 30 year Treasury bond future, which has been beaten up horribly and is deeply oversold. The key point is not calling a bottom, it is structure: there are two ways to play a bounce, and a defined-risk call spread gives a far better payoff profile than selling a put spread when the trend is still clearly down.
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Chapters
00:00 Have bonds bottomed or bounced
00:14 A tactical, not a swing, trade
00:37 The 30 year bond contract explained
00:53 Why the long bond moves fast
01:16 Idea one, the short put spread
01:37 Why that's catching a knife
01:55 Idea two, the call spread
02:25 Risking one to make...