Oil is up, bonds are down, and stocks are still pushing higher. Veteran options trader Tony Battista says that mix makes this probably one of the toughest markets for anyone trading off a macro view.
On The Drift with Adam Mesh, Battista lays out the disconnect he was watching in real time. Oil was higher and bonds were lower, yet the market had barely seen a downtick. He notes that E-mini S&P 500 futures were up 35 to 40 points while the small-cap Russell 2000 was down on the day, before the Russell started catching a bid.
Bond yields are a big part of that backdrop. The 10-year Treasury yield touched roughly 5.29% on Sept. 29, a level not seen since June 2007, while the 30-year yield reached about 5.62%, its highest point since June 2002. Oil prices have rebounded in recent days as a U.S.-Iran deal looks less likely, and more expensive fuel has raised fresh concerns about inflation, helping lift long-term yields. Fed Governor Michael Barr has signaled the central bank likely isn't ...
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