The 10-year Treasury yield just broke above 5%, and Tom Sosnoff says the bond market is telling you something the stock market isn't.
On September 23, 2026, live on The Drift with Adam Mesh, Sosnoff watched bonds hit new lows and called it an "ugly, ugly move." He said stocks reflect how big companies are doing, but bonds reflect how the market feels about the economy, and right now that signal isn't healthy.
The numbers back up how big the move was. The 10-year yield jumped about 14 basis points that day to close near 5.11%, its highest level since 2007 and its biggest one-day jump since April 2025. The 30-year yield closed around 5.4%, a fresh high for the year. The next day it hit roughly 5.5%, a level not seen since 2004. The 10-year started 2026 near 4.15%.
What's driving it looks more like overheating than a slowdown. S&P Global's flash composite PMI hit 58.4 in September, its strongest reading since July 2021. Brent crude settled back above $103 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran war kee...
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