Sharp Football Analysis
@SharpFBAnalysis
NFL analytics, betting insights, fantasy football analysis, game picks & props using advanced predictive models & data from Warren Sharp & a team of experts
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Not only does Travis Kelce have the highest yardage prop in the Super Bowl, but it is a line that he has bested in over half of his games this season
Kelce has 78 or more receiving yards in eight straight playoff games
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In the playoffs, the Chiefs have reached the red zone on 6-of-21 drives (28.6%)
Five of those six (83.3%) have finished with a touchdown
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A.J. Brown has just 50 total receiving yards in the postseason
He posted 90 or more yards in his four games entering the playoffs while he had at least 70 yards in six straight games before the postseason
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The Eagles have scored a touchdown on their 1st offensive possession in 10 of 19 games, including the postseason, a league-high 52.6% TD rate
Including the 1st drive of each half, the Eagles have scored a TD on a NFL-high 42% of their opening-half drives
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A NFL high 39% of Kansas City’s drives have reached the red zone between the regular season and playoffs this year
70.5% have ended in a touchdown
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The Chiefs and Eagles are the only two teams in the league that have scored on over 50% of their first half possessions, with the Eagles at 52.9% and the Chiefs at 51.5%
League average is 38.8%
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Patrick Mahomes is 23rd in the league in air yards per pass attempt this season (7.1 yards downfield)
Just 8.6% of his throws have come 20 yards or further downfield (30th in the NFL)
54% of the passing yardage he has this season has come after the catch
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The Eagles have scored a TD on their 1st offensive drive in 10 of 19 games, including the postseason, a NFL high 52.6% TD rate
If we include the first drive of each half, the Eagles have scored a TD on a league-high 42.1% of their opening-half drives
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The Sharp Angles Super Bowl 57 preview show is live!
Listen to @LordReebs and @DanPizzuta breakdown and give their unique perspective on the Super Bowl
Listen to the full show here ⬇️
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During the season, the Eagles had the 2nd highest pressure rate with a 4 man rush
They were 11th when they sent a blitz but no team created quicker pressure with an extra pass rusher (2.25 seconds) and Philadelphia was 2nd in EPA per play with a blitz
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When the Eagles do throw, no team targets their wide receivers at a higher rate (69.5%)
Since Week 10 Smith leads the team in targets (96), receptions (63), receiving yardage (851) and receiving scores (6)
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The Eagles ranked fifth overall for unnecessary roughness in the NFL
Carl Cheffers led the NFL in this category in 2021 and ranked fourth in 2022
The Eagles don’t have a lot of penalty flaws, but this would be one of them
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It is just the ninth time that the Chiefs have been underdogs with Mahomes under center in what will be his 94th career start
This is the first time that the Chiefs are an underdog in the postseason with Patrick Mahomes under center
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Super Bowl 57 Injury Report
Mecole Hardman
L’Jarius Sneed
Lane Johnson
Robert Quinn
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Kadarius Toney
Avonte Maddox
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The Chiefs lead the NFL in yards per play in the 1st half of games (6.7) while the Eagles are third (6.3)
These are the only two teams in the NFL that have scored on over 50% of their 1st half possessions, with the Eagles at 52.9% and the Chiefs at 51.5%
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Since Week 14, the Chiefs have allowed just 4.6 yards per play (second in the NFL)
Over their past six games, the Chiefs have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 38.8% of dropbacks (third in the league) while posting an 8.2% sack rate (eighth)
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Jalen Hurts only has thrown an interception in five games this season
The Chiefs have an interception in five straight games and at least one interception in eight of their past 10 games
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The Chiefs rank as the number one penalized team in the NFL for defensive pass interference
The Eagles this season were ranked 31st out of 32 teams in this category
Carl Cheffers ranked fourth overall for defensive pass interference penalties
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The Eagles and Chiefs have faced 6 common opponents this season
The Eagles have a +73 point differential in those games compared to a +67 point differential for the Chiefs
The Eagles went 6-0 in those games while the Chiefs were 6-1 (Jaguars twice)
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Once the Eagles get into the red zone, the switch flips to the ground game
52.6% of the Eagles’ opening drives reached the red zone — 10-of-19 — and eight of them finished in the end zone, an 80% conversion rate
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The Eagles have allowed just one quarterback (Dak Prescott in Week 16) to throw for more than 250 yards in a game this season
Philadelphia is second in the NFL in pressure rate (39.4% of dropbacks)
Read @LordReebs full Super Bowl article here ⬇️
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Jalen Hurts averages 10.9 rushing attempts per game
He leads all quarterbacks in designed rushing attempts (95) this season
The Chiefs have faced the fourth-most rushing attempts from quarterbacks (5.3 per game)
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Patrick Mahomes is averaging 37.9 pass attempts per game this season
But
He has thrown 30 or fewer passes in four of his past eight games to close the season
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Sanders is also likely to have more light boxes to run into against Kansas City
Which is exactly the scenario the Eagles attempt to create for him
Sanders ran into a light box (six or fewer defenders) on 36% of his carries
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