Touchdown rebounds are coming, and the best fantasy values usually show up before the market fully adjusts.
The biggest positive touchdown regression candidates for 2026:
Saints: 11.7 TDs below expectation
Texans: 8.4 below
Chargers: 6.3 below
Since 2010, 66.8% of teams that scored fewer touchdowns than expected improved the following season, with an average jump of 10.1 touchdowns.
That matters for fantasy.
More touchdowns means more chances for QBs, RBs, and pass catchers to beat draft cost. If you are looking for offenses that can outperform expectations this year, these are the teams worth circling now.
The Saints were the coldest team in the league.
The Texans and Chargers are the most interesting because both have the profile to be good offenses and still score more.
Which offense makes the biggest jump in 2026?
Save this for draft season and send it to the person in your league who always chases last year’s touchdowns.
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